5/17/2023
The US labor situation will likely keep inflation from falling too fast, and make the onset of recession slow. China does not seem like it is there to bail out the global economy. I worry that another energy crisis occurs, but if we get a republican back in the white house, it could be drill-baby-drill. Offsetting scenarios!
China / Economy
- IEA says tighter oil market this year, in part due to supply disruptions, but also due to China’s record-setting March 2023 oil consumption
- Yet China is easing lending into a softening economy. The uptake of loans is soft. Not a picture of a booming economy.
- Kupperman (via QTR): a confluence of factors muffled our ongoing energy crisis
- China wants to rely on removal of “negative policies” to jumpstart activity.
- Doesn’t seem to be like China will shift into overdrive anytime soon.
- https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Reopening-May-Not-Lead-To-A-Major-Jump-In-Oil-Prices.html
US / Economy
- Supply & demand of US Labor, charted:
- Updated chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZAmJ
- Article: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/02/are-labor-supply-and-labor-demand-out-of-balance/
- Worth revisiting
- Inflation recedes more slowly, the lower it goes
Python
- Tradingview charts in Python!
Trading Psychology
- “When the cost of failure is low, too much pessimism prevents you from trying. When the cost of failure is high, too much optimism encourages unwarranted risk.”
- “Humans cannot process all available information, yet they can choose how to deal with this cognitive limitation.”
- Hindsight bias:
- Quant investing > Discretionary investing!
- “Quantitative investors, in contrast, will draw on a fuller probability distribution and, ideally, be able to make more accurate probability assessments that are not as biased by recent experience and human memory.”
- https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/memory-and-probability?e=04303b5315
- Avoiding errors matters most in “loser games”: